Under the “involution”, PDH’s profit is unspeakable

The Orient Securities Derivatives Research Team conducted a survey on PDH companies in East China and came to the following conclusions.

PDH enterprises with diversified layout of propylene industry chain have higher anti-risk ability

In the horizontal comparison of PDH enterprises, the differences in raw material procurement methods and port conditions have little impact on PDH enterprises’ risk-resisting ability, and the main factors that cause large differences in PDH’s profit or risk-resisting ability are the layout of propylene downstream products and the utilization of hydrogen. situation is different. From the survey results, the anti-risk ability of PDH enterprises is ranked from high to low: PDH enterprises with a background of refining and chemical integration> PDH enterprises with diversified downstream propylene layout> PDH enterprises with only polypropylene downstream of propylene> PDH enterprises with relatively high propylene output.

The PDH industry will become more competitive

In the next five years, China’s new PDH production capacity will be at least 20 million tons per year. Under the background of gradually increasing competition pressure, the PDH enterprises surveyed this time basically have plans to continue extending to the downstream of propylene. However, in addition to polypropylene, other propylene downstream products such as acrylonitrile, acrylic acid and propylene oxide have a small market scale and low net import volume. If PDH enterprises deploy other propylene downstream products other than polypropylene on a large scale, they will Facing more intense market competition, the more dominant new production capacity and the production capacity after the elimination of upstream and downstream integrated devices may intensify in the future.

Hydrogen utilization is still in its infancy

Judging from the results of this survey, most of the hydrogen produced by PDH is currently used as fuel for self-use or piped to other companies in the chemical park. 300 yuan and 400-500 yuan. At present, only a few PDH companies use hydrogen for the synthesis of chemicals, such as hydrogen and oxygen to generate hydrogen peroxide, and hydrogen peroxide to react with propylene to generate propylene oxide. Compared with combustion, the hydrogen generated per ton of propylene in this way can still An additional $300 in income. This layout of connecting propylene and cheap hydrogen in series can greatly improve the profitability of PHD companies, or it will be the key to PDH companies in the process of increasing competitive pressure.